Chapter 2-1 Electronic Devices / Sustainable Society Prout Village Third Edition

 

○Resource Depletion Issue

When moving from a monetary society to the construction of Prout Village, the first step is to look at resources. This makes it possible to grasp what can and cannot be done.

According to the “Ecological Footprint” indicator created by the research organization Global Footprint Network (GFN), if all humanity were to live at the average standard of Americans, it would require resources equivalent to 5.1 Earths. Even living at the average Japanese standard requires 2.9 Earths, which serves as a reference value.

In modern life, electronic devices are indispensable. However, their materials include rare metals such as lithium and cobalt, which have low production volumes yet are indispensable for certain industries, as well as base metals like iron and copper, which are produced in large quantities and widely used in industry.
The following table arranges these metal resources in order of their theoretical depletion years. In reality, depletion is likely to be preceded by export restrictions imposed by mining countries, leading to reduced supply. Furthermore, as the population grows, the rapid spread of smartphones, PCs, and AI servers will increase production volume, which may accelerate the theoretical depletion years. Conversely, the discovery of new mines and technological advances could delay depletion.
In the U.S. Geological Survey’s data on national reserves of resources, there are cases where “No available data (NA)” is noted. In such cases, the reserves section of the table below is indicated as “◯◯ million tons or more” to provide a lower-bound estimate. Similarly, the theoretical depletion years are also lower-bound estimates calculated from the known reserves.

Theoretical Depletion Year Estimates of Rare and Base Metals (FY2025)

Resource	Reserves	2024 Production	R/P Ratio (years)	Theoretical Depletion Year	Example of Usage	Example of Use in AI Devices
Tin	≥4.2 million tons	300,000 tons	≥14 years	2039 or later	Solder, smartphone/PC boards, aircraft parts	AI board solder, electronic connectors
Gold	64,000 tons	3,300 tons	19.39 years	2044	Electronics, circuits, medical equipment, aircraft parts	AI server wiring, electronic connectors
Antimony	≥2 million tons	100,000 tons	≥20 years	2045 or later	Flame retardants, batteries, electronics	AI servers, electronic device flame retardants
Lead	96 million tons	4.3 million tons	22.33 years	2047	Batteries, piping, radiation shielding, electronic components	AI server batteries, radiation protection
Indium (SCRREEN, 2020)	18,800 tons	827 tons (2013–2016 avg.)	22.73 years	2048	Flat-panel displays, battery additives, semiconductors (LEDs, laser diodes), infrared technology	AI server displays, board solder, semiconductors, heat conduction materials (server cooling)
Selenium	92,000 tons	3,700 tons	24.86 years	2050	Glassmaking, pigments, electronics, solar cells	AI semiconductors, sensors, solar power
Chromium	≥1.2 billion tons	47 million tons	≥25.53 years	2051 or later	Stainless steel, alloys, corrosion-resistant coatings, aircraft parts	Server chassis materials, AI device alloys
Silver	640,000 tons	25,000 tons	25.6 years	2051	Smartphone/PC circuits, electronic components, medical tools	AI server CPU/GPU wiring
Fluorspar	320 million tons	9.5 million tons	33.68 years	2059	Fluorides, aluminum production, steelmaking, cement	AI server coolant, electronic insulation
Nickel	≥130 million tons	3.7 million tons	≥35.14 years	2060 or later	EV batteries, aircraft parts, stainless steel, smartphone/PC batteries	AI power supplies, battery materials
Tellurium	35,000 tons	980 tons	35.71 years	2061	Solar cells, alloys, semiconductors, medical devices	AI solar cells, semiconductor stabilizers
Cobalt	11 million tons	290,000 tons	37.93 years	2063	EV batteries, smartphone/PC batteries, aircraft parts	Data center UPS, AI server and laptop batteries
Diamond (Industrial)	1.7 billion carats	41 million carats	41.46 years	2066	Abrasives, cutting tools, drill bits, electronics	AI chip cutting tools, cooling systems
Copper	~980 million tons	23 million tons	42.61 years	2068	Smartphone/PC boards, wiring, medical equipment	Server wiring, GPU/CPU power lines
Tungsten	≥4.6 million tons	81,000 tons	≥57 years	2082 or later	Smartphone vibration motors, PC/smartphone assembly tools, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, precision drills	Conductor manufacturing equipment, high-temperature sensors, electronic contacts, heat dissipation
Molybdenum	15 million tons	260,000 tons	57.69 years	2083	Steel alloys, heat-resistant materials, catalysts, aircraft parts	AI server heat-resistant alloys, electronics
Titanium minerals	≥560 million tons	9.4 million tons	≥59.5 years	2084 or later	Aerospace, medical devices, paints, ships, sporting goods	AI server chassis alloys (light, corrosion-resistant), GPU/CPU cooling structure
Bauxite & Alumina	29 billion tons	450 million tons	64.44 years	2089	Aluminum production, aircraft parts, electronics	AI server lightweight chassis, heat dissipation
Iron ore	200 billion tons	2.5 billion tons	80 years	2105	Steelmaking, construction, automobiles, machinery	Server chassis, AI infrastructure steel
Manganese	1.7 billion tons	20 million tons	85 years	2110	Steelmaking, batteries, alloys, fertilizers	AI server batteries, structural alloys
Niobium	≥17 million tons	110,000 tons	≥155 years	2180 or later	Superalloys, aircraft parts, medical tools	Server chassis, GPU heat-resistant alloys
Lithium	30 million tons	240,000 tons	125 years	2150	EV, smartphone/PC batteries, medical devices	AI server and laptop batteries, UPS
Iodine	6.2 million tons	33,000 tons	187.88 years	2213	Medicine, photography, catalysts, LCDs	AI display materials, medical AI devices
Graphite	290 million tons	1.6 million tons	181.25 years	2206	EV/smartphone/PC battery electrodes, pencils, lubricants	AI server/GPU battery electrodes
Rare earths (17 elements)	≥90 million tons	390,000 tons	≥230.77 years	2255 or later	Smartphone/PC magnets, phosphors, motors	GPU/CPU cooling fan magnets, hard disk magnets
Phosphate rock	74 billion tons	240 million tons	308.33 years	2333	Fertilizers, food additives, detergents, batteries	AI server battery materials, agricultural AI fertilizers

Notes:

R/P ratio (years) = reserves ÷ annual production.

Sources:
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), 2025, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 (version 1.2, March 2025): U.S. Geological Survey, 212 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/mcs2025.
MINERAL COMMODITY SUMMARIES 2025, https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025.pdf

SCRREEN, Indium CRM Factsheet 2020, European Commission, 2023
https://scrreen.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/INDIUM_CRM_2020_Factsheets_critical_Final.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

If the 14 resources with a theoretical depletion year between 2039 (tin) and 2068 (copper) face depletion or supply restrictions, the production of smartphones, PCs, and AI will be severely affected. While complete unavailability is unlikely, it will lead to significant performance degradation and manufacturing constraints.

Although the reserves of copper are large, its depletion year is approaching because it is consumed in massive quantities worldwide for electrical wiring, electronic devices, and construction.

The essential fields required to sustain society include medical care, communication, power generation, water management, and meteorological observation. Base metals and rare metals are also used in these areas. The following table summarizes the expected depletion or restriction years of these resources. Since these estimates are based on theoretical depletion or restriction years as of 2025, they could be extended by the discovery of new mines or technological innovations, or shortened by policy changes in exporting countries.

In 2010, China tightened export restrictions on rare earths, cutting export quotas by about 40% compared to the previous year. Internationally, this triggered concerns over supply security and caused a sharp surge in prices. “Rare earths” is a collective term for 17 types of rare metals, which include the following:
Rare earths (Lanthanum, Cerium, Praseodymium, Neodymium, Promethium, Samarium, Europium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Ytterbium, Lutetium, Scandium, Yttrium).

As of 2024, rare earth reserves are distributed with China at about 48.9% (the largest), Brazil at about 23.3% (second), and India at about 7.7% (third). In terms of production, China accounts for about 69.2% (first), the United States for about 11.5% (second), and Myanmar for about 7.9% (third). Rare earths are used in virtually all electronic devices, but the reality is that the world is heavily dependent on China for these 17 rare metals.

Sources:
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), 2025, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 (version 1.2, March 2025): U.S. Geological Survey, 212 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/mcs2025.
MINERAL COMMODITY SUMMARIES 2025, https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025.pdf

Medical Field

Equipment / Device	Theoretical Depletion or Usage Restriction Year of Metal Resources	Impact
MRI Machine	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Indium: 2048, Silver: 2051, Selenium: 2050, Rare Earths: from 2255	Circuit and sensor depletion → increased costs, reduced diagnostic accuracy, installation restrictions
CT Scanner	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Silver: 2051, Copper: 2068, Tungsten: from 2082, Rare Earths: from 2255	X-ray tube and circuit depletion → maintenance difficulty, price surge, diagnostic delays
Ventilator	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Cobalt: 2063, Nickel: from 2060, Copper: 2068, Rare Earths: from 2255	Battery and circuit depletion → operational difficulty, price increase, stock shortages
Electrocardiograph (ECG)	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Indium: 2048, Silver: 2051, Copper: 2068, Rare Earths: from 2255	Electrode and circuit depletion → higher costs, diagnostic delays, introduction restrictions
Ultrasound Diagnostic Device	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Indium: 2048, Silver: 2051, Selenium: 2050, Rare Earths: from 2255	Sensor depletion → reduced accuracy, higher costs, diagnostic limitations
Blood Analyzer	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Silver: 2051, Selenium: 2050, Tellurium: 2061, Rare Earths: from 2255	Sensor depletion → delayed tests, price increases, reduced diagnostic efficiency
Pacemaker	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Cobalt: 2063, Nickel: from 2060, Titanium: from 2084, Rare Earths: from 2255	Electrode and battery depletion → higher surgical costs, longer waiting lists
Endoscopy System	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Silver: 2051, Copper: 2068, Tungsten: from 2082, Rare Earths: from 2255	Circuit and lighting depletion → reduced surgical accuracy, higher costs, screening restrictions
X-ray Device	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Lead: 2047, Silver: 2051, Tungsten: from 2082, Rare Earths: from 2255	Shielding material and tube depletion → maintenance difficulty, diagnostic delays
Artificial Joints & Implants	Chromium: from 2051, Cobalt: 2063, Nickel: from 2060, Titanium: from 2084, Rare Earths: from 2255	Alloy depletion → higher surgical costs, reduced patient quality of life
Dental Equipment	Antimony: from 2045, Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Silver: 2051, Copper: 2068, Rare Earths: from 2255	Electrode and flame-retardant material depletion → higher costs, reduced quality of care

Power Generation & Control

Equipment / Device	Theoretical Depletion or Usage Restriction Year of Metal Resources	Impact
Power Plant Control System (SCADA), Distribution Panels	Gold: 2044, Silver: 2051, Rare Earths: from 2255	Silver and gold used to improve power conversion efficiency. Supply constraints → cost increase, possible device introduction restrictions
High-efficiency Transformers (including iron core alloys)	Chromium: from 2051, Cobalt: 2063, Rare Earths: from 2255	Cobalt and chromium alloys essential for high-efficiency transformer manufacturing. Alternatives difficult → price increase risk
Generator (Wind & General)	Nickel: from 2060, Cobalt: 2063, Rare Earths: from 2255	Nickel and cobalt used for efficiency and weight reduction. High supply risk → increased costs
Power Storage (Lithium-ion, Cobalt-based batteries, BMS)	Nickel: from 2060, Cobalt: 2063, Lithium: 2150, Rare Earths: from 2255	Rapid demand due to EVs and energy storage. Urgent need for alternative technology development
Power Conversion Devices / Inverters (Power Semiconductors, Transistors, High-performance Components)	Gold: 2044, Silver: 2051, Copper: 2068, Rare Earths: from 2255	High-performance components use silver, gold, copper. Supply constraints → cost increase, possible device introduction restrictions

Water Management & Sanitation Technology

Equipment / Device	Theoretical Depletion or Usage Restriction Year of Metal Resources	Impact
Water Treatment Plant Sensors (pH, Conductivity, Turbidity, etc.)	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Indium: 2048, Rare Earths: from 2255	Rare metals used in high-sensitivity sensor circuits, solder, transparent electrodes. Depletion → maintenance/updating difficult, cost increase
Automatic Chlorine Injection Device	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Silver: 2051, Rare Earths: from 2255	Metals used in control boards and contacts. Supply constraints → increased introduction and update costs
Sterilization Device (Silver Ion Generator)	Silver: 2051, Rare Earths: from 2255	Uses antibacterial effect of silver. If alternative technologies (copper ions, photocatalysts, etc.) are not widespread, supply restrictions may limit operation
Ultraviolet Sterilization Lamp	Tungsten: from 2082, Rare Earths: from 2255	Tungsten used in electrodes. Supply constraints → lamp lifespan and replacement costs affected
Water Quality Monitoring Devices	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Indium: 2048, Silver: 2051, Rare Earths: from 2255	Uses various rare metals in sensors and circuit boards. Simultaneous depletion of multiple resources → increased maintenance costs, difficult updates

Meteorological & Disaster Observation

Equipment / Device	Theoretical Depletion or Usage Restriction Year of Metal Resources	Impact
Seismometer (Sensor Unit)	Tin: from 2039, Tellurium: 2061, Copper: 2068, Rare Earths: from 2255	Rare metals used in high-sensitivity circuits and sensors. Depletion → affects precision, maintenance, and replacement costs
Meteorological Sensors (Temperature, Humidity, Wind Speed, Pressure)	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Indium: 2048, Copper: 2068, Rare Earths: from 2255	Rare metals used in high-performance sensor circuits and connectors. Supply limits may reduce accuracy and complicate maintenance
Early Warning System (Including Wireless Transceivers)	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Indium: 2048, Rare Earths: from 2255	Essential metals in circuits and boards for communication. Supply constraints may limit operation and expansion
Satellite Observation Equipment	Tin: from 2039, Gold: 2044, Indium: 2048, Tellurium: 2061, Copper: 2068, Rare Earths: from 2255	Rare metals used in high-sensitivity satellite sensors and communication parts. Material shortages → operational limits, increased update costs
Ocean Observation Buoy	Tin: from 2039, Indium: 2048, Copper: 2068, Rare Earths: from 2255	Rare metals used in circuits and sensors requiring long-term durability. Supply shortage → higher maintenance and replacement costs

Daily-use smartphones and PCs each require 50–60 elements, with 20–25 rare metals for smartphones and 25–30 for PCs. Among these, the major metals and rare metals whose depletion is a concern by 2090 are as follows:

Smartphones

Component	Theoretical Depletion / Usage Restriction Year	Notes / Background
Capacitors, Electronic Components	Tin: 2039, Gold: 2044, Indium: 2048, Silver: 2051, Tellurium: 2061, Cobalt: 2063, Nickel: 2060, Rare Earths: from 2255	Essential for circuit components. Used in trace rare metals, semiconductor materials, transparent electrodes, solder. Supply limits → potential price increase
LCD Transparent Electrodes	Gold: 2044, Indium: 2048, Rare Earths: from 2255	Limited production, potential supply-demand constraints. Rare metals used in phosphors, polarizers, conductive films
Semiconductor Materials	Gold: 2044, Selenium: 2050, Silver: 2051, Rare Earths: from 2255	Used in electrodes and wiring. High-performance semiconductors include trace rare earth and rare element doping. Supply constraints → cost increase
Semiconductor / Solar Cell Materials	Selenium: 2050, Tellurium: 2061, Rare Earths: from 2255	Rising demand for solar cells. Used in phosphors, dielectrics, semiconductor stabilization
Semiconductor / Electronic Components	Gold: 2044, Indium: 2048, Silver: 2051, Rare Earths: from 2255	Used in electrodes and wiring. High-performance components contain trace rare elements for improved performance
Magnets (Speakers, Vibration Motors)	Nickel: 2060, Cobalt: 2063, Rare Earths: from 2255	Important as magnetic materials. Used in high-performance magnets such as neodymium magnets. Supply constraints → cost increase
Lithium-ion Battery Cathode Materials	Nickel: 2060, Tellurium: 2061, Cobalt: 2063, Lithium: 2150, Rare Earths: from 2255	Essential for EVs and storage batteries. Rare metals used in cathode additives and electrolytes. Supply concentrated in specific regions → high risk
High-performance Parts (Magnetic, Superconducting)	Fluorspar: 2059, Nickel: 2060, Tellurium: 2061, Cobalt: 2063, Rare Earths: from 2255	Required for high-performance parts. Used in phosphors, magnetic parts, superconductors. Supply constraints → price increase risk

The projected depletion year for lithium, which is used in batteries, is 2150, but lithium alone cannot function effectively as a battery. As of 2025, mainstream lithium-ion batteries are combinations such as Li + Ni + Co + Mn or Li + Co. Even if lithium remains, if partner elements nickel and cobalt are depleted by 2060–2063, conventional high-energy-density batteries cannot be manufactured.

Thus, smartphone and PC production will be gradually affected as follows:

Theoretical Year	Impact Range / Main Constraints
2040–2050	Constraints on rare metals in solder, wiring, transparent electrodes, and circuit components → rising production costs, partial limitations
2060–2070	Shortages of nickel and cobalt limit manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries (for smartphones, PCs, EVs). Constraints on magnets (speakers, vibration motors) and wiring (copper) → mass production becomes difficult, performance risks
2080 onward	Supply constraints on tungsten (vibration motors, PCB assembly tools), molybdenum (heat-resistant alloys), titanium and alumina (enclosures, structural materials) → further production limitations, cost increase
By 2090	Constraints on nickel, cobalt, copper, and fluorspar become significant → mass production becomes very difficult
2150–2250	Depletion of lithium and rare earths → severe restrictions on batteries, magnets, and motors, making mass production nearly impossible

In other words, the model of one PC per household or one smartphone per person is unsustainable from the perspectives of resource depletion, environmental impact, and electronic waste. This gradual constraint begins around 2040. As major producing countries tighten export regulations, serious restrictions will affect the entire manufacturing sector. Subsequently, rapid cost increases, international conflicts, and recycling limits will emerge, and these technologies will no longer be universally accessible.

Smartphones, in particular, are designed with an average lifespan of 2–3 years, assuming frequent replacement, which inherently contradicts sustainability. High-performance, high-power-consumption electronics using rare metals are temporarily viable technologies, which ultimately cannot be used indefinitely. Even if alternative materials temporarily extend production, these solutions are not permanent; usage continues only until resources run out. Moreover, technological innovation cannot be reliably predicted or guaranteed.

Beyond base metals and rare metals, coal is projected to be effectively depleted around 2160, oil around 2075, and natural gas around 2070.

Remaining Years of Fossil Fuel Reserves as of 2020

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/years-of-fossil-fuel-reserves-left

The depletion and supply limitations of oil and natural gas affect nearly every industry and aspect of daily life, including transportation, construction, electronics, home appliances, communication, agriculture, chemical products, medical care, electricity, water management, disaster prevention, and consumer culture. These constraints result in limitations on production, operation, and maintenance, rising costs, and the loss of sustainability. From the perspective of resource reserves, deterioration in costs and production quantities will gradually intensify from around 2040.

Additionally, sand is the second most widely used resource in the world after water, primarily for construction materials. According to a 2022 report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the amount of sand and gravel used annually is sufficient to build a wall around the Earth 27 meters wide and 27 meters high. Extracting sand from rivers, coasts, and marine ecosystems can cause erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, loss of coastal protection against storm surges, and impacts on biodiversity, potentially threatening water supply, food production, fisheries, and tourism-based livelihoods.

Source:
Our use of sand brings us “up against the wall”, says UNEP report, UNEP
UNEP Report

The structural reasons why these critical resource depletion issues are difficult to communicate to the general public are as follows.

1.The issues are specialized and complex
Each resource belongs to a different sector, and understanding when, why, and in which field a resource will become scarce requires a complex comprehension. This makes it difficult for the general public to grasp intuitively.

2.Companies tend to prioritize profit
When resource shortages or price spikes become visible, the risk of increased production costs and reduced profits arises, so companies tend to avoid drawing attention to such problems in the media or public discussions.
Additionally, higher prices may lead to reduced consumer purchases, creating a structure where the problem is temporarily hidden or downplayed.
This is a natural response, as companies aim to maximize profit and minimize the risk of loss in a competitive market.

3.Politics prioritizes short-term results
Politicians tend to prioritize economic growth and employment measures that produce quick, visible results to gain support in elections.
Moreover, they are often influenced by industry and related organizations, which means fundamental measures for resource issues are frequently postponed.
Here, “being influenced” refers to specific industries or organizations lobbying policymakers to avoid regulations or measures that would disadvantage them.

4.Media prioritizes attention-grabbing topics
TV, newspapers, and online news tend to focus on disasters, crimes, and entertainment news that attract viewers or readers.
As a result, specialized and long-term resource issues are less likely to be covered.

5.Consumers have difficulty perceiving the problem
It is hard for people to notice the massive amount of resources used behind daily life, such as the large amount of water required to produce a single piece of clothing or the many rare metals used in smartphones.
Furthermore, the scarcity of resources is not fully reflected in product prices, leading to the misunderstanding that “if I can still buy it, there is no problem”.